Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Dipsea Data (Initial Data)

In response to a thread I've been participating in on the Tamalpa Runners Message Board, I've begun a statistical analysis of Dipsea records. The thread started with the question of whether the boys age 8 handicap gave them a disadvantage over other runners. I don't know anything about the methods actually used and regretably have not had a chance to buy and read Dipsea expert Barry Spitz's book. This may be a benefit to this small project since I can consider a fresh approach.

I promised an analysis which would determine the ideal handicaps for every age/gender combination. As everyone in Marin County, CA and many people outside of Marin knows, the Dipsea is a 7.1 mile trail race, famous for allowing alternate routes and for giving runners head starts based on age and gender. I proposed that handicaps should be based on projected times for each age gender as determined by a best-fit line calculated using historical Dipsea times.

Barry provided me with all of the single age/gender records. There are 162 total records - women aged 5-77 and men aged 6-95, excluding men aged 91 as the record holder Jack Kirk's official time is unavailable. Using this data I've developed 3 graphs which plot each record. Each graph also has a best-fit line. A best fit line is one that best appromixates each Y-value (time) for every X-value (age). For this line I used a polynomial formula with an order of 6. The best-fit line is determined by calculating the minimum variances as determined by comparing the line with the various data points.

Here are the graphs with brief explanation:

This is the master graph. All data is reflected here. Women's data (red) and men's data (blue) are plotted. The women's best-fit line is in green and men's in orange. One thing I noticed is it appears that the women's best-fit line is not a U. The men's is a U - starting at a young age, times get faster to a certain point and then get slower. But the women's seem to bottom out around age 19, then rise a little, then bottom out again in the mid 40's. The data does this too - if you see on Barry's blog, women in their teens can run under an hour, women in their early 20's seem unable to, and women starting at age 26 seem to be able to again. There is possibly a confounding variable there as most of the sub 1 hour times were from the 1980's and the best times at other ages tend more toward recent years. I will talk to Barry about this as I speculate these are due to course differences.

You also can see which records are the most "impressive" and which records are "soft". The impressive records are ones where the plotted point is far below the best fit line and soft receords are ones considerably above the best fit line. The women seem to be less consistent - their points are generally farther from their best fit line than men's. One possible explanation for this is more men the race which would lead to the best men's times have been whittled down more.

A couple soft records seem to be:
Women age 65
Men age 84-86, 89
A few impressive records seem to be:
Women age 66 and 68
Men age 87, 88, 90
It also appears that there are some kind-of-soft records:
Women - around age 20. As I wrote above teens and late 20's women ran faster, maybe due to the faster women around age 20 being on college racing/training schedules?
Men - mid-30's, because men aged 38-41 ran faster with no reason to think that extra speed comes with the 38th birthday.


This 2nd graph works the same as the first except I cut off men at age 83. I did this because it's difficult to see the meat part of the graph due to the high ages causing the Y-axis to go so high. I arbitrarily picked age 83 because 84 is where the earliest occurance of the men's record being slower than the slowest women's record (which is women age 77) exists. If the graph has to go up to the women age 77, we might as well include all of the men's time up to that point.

Also on the 2nd graph the men's best fit line is not exactly the same as the 1st graph. This is because the men's age 84+ times are exllucded from the calculation. It's close but not the same. For handicapping purposes which I'll discuss in a post (hopefully next week) using the best-fit line on the 1st graph would be a better choice.


I further truncated the 2nd graph to develop the 3rd, in the same way I truncated the 1st to get the 2nd. Again, the best-fit line will not exactly match the above graphs because it considers only that graph's data. This graph shows the ages where the most competitive times are posted. I used ages 16 and 55 endpoints arbitrarily because that's where it appears the times start and stop being "real fast".

Race 11-25 U.S. Snowshoe Championship Relay 4x2.5k

Races 11-23,24 US Snowshoe Championship, Citizens 5k

March 12th, 2011
10k - 58:03- 67th/114
Garmin Tracking here.
5k (6k?)- 34:44 - 2nd/49
Garmin Tracking here.

This weekend I went to the United States Snowshoe National Championships for the 5th time. The previous events I went to were in Minnesota, Utah, Oregon, and New York. This year the site selected was Lakewoods Resort in Cable, Wisconsin. Cable isn’t easy to get to. The nearest airports are Duluth, MN which is 2.5 hours away and Minneapolis, MN which is a little more than 3 hours away. Flights from SFO to MSP were more than $700 so I used my Delta Frequent Flyer Miles for the flight. I arrived in Minneapolis around noon and immediately went to the Mall of America to eat lunch. The mall is by far the largest mall in the county, by number of stores. There are 2 food courts both on the 3rd floor and I got a Texas wrap from Healthy Express.

Then I left for Cable. I arrived after 7PM without a hotel reservation. I read some negative comments about the host resort online so I figured if it was nice I’d stay there and if not there were some cheap options a half hour away. After leaving Minneapolis there is a whole lot of nothing. The drive was mostly on a 2 lane road and was kind of tiring so I stopped for a 20 minute nap. I got there a little past 7PM, after the athlete reception had finished although I wasn’t especially looking forward to attending.

I immediately went to the registration table which was open until 8PM where I reacquainted with Mark Elmore. Mark is the president of the United States Snowshoe Association (USSSA) and even more importantly he is the guy who puts in (by far) the most work to keep the whole thing going. To say he does a lot of work is an understatement. Without him I don’t know if the Regional Qualifier system and Championship would keep going. Registering right after me was Tim van Orden. He looked familiar and I’d heard his name from keeping on top of the New England snowshoe races but I had definitely never met him. Tim was very friendly.

I went to the registration desk to ask about room and they offered me a condo onsite next to the main lodge for $125 a night. It was a little more than I wanted to spend but the resort looked decent and I didn’t want to drive any more. I was also disappointed that the quoted price was before taxes but didn’t’ care enough to get out of it. Tim was lingering around the area and introduced me to a couple of his friends – Jim Johnson and Kevin Tilton. I had read a bit about Jim I think from Dave Dunham’s blog and I’d heard of Kevin as well. All 3 are clearly out of my league but they were welcomed me into their New England group, which worked out because it turned out there were only 3 west coasters at the event and I didn’t know the other 2. They were all staying about a half hour down the road.

After chatting a while about some people we know (Jim knew Chris Mahoney who I knew from UMASS and had met Scott Dunlap who I know from SF Bay California) I went to the room I rented. It turned out to be a 2 bedroom condo with a double bed and a pair of twins, full kitchen and bath. Too bad it was just me there. The room was clean and decent – it had an automatic fireplace which turned itself on and off but I thought it weird that the TV had only 10 or so channels, some staticky, and was a small TV/VCR combo. It was good enough to be comfortable in.

I was awake and ready very early. The youth race started at 9AM followed by the men’s race at 10AM and the women’s race at 11:30AM. This was the first time I remember the men going first. The weather was colder than yesterday, low 30s. It was overcast and snow was blowing in the air but it didn’t look like any real precipitation. In fact it appeared several inches had fallen overnight and there were flurries in the air. The start/finish line was about 100 yards from where I was staying so I kept warm in my room.

At the start I tried to get to around the 3rd row. I wanted to start a little fast because the course looked easier than I had been running in California. It was a little tight at the beginning since everyone took off like it was a road 5k and it was downhill with some turns at the bottom. I heard after the race that Bob Dion, owner of Dion Snowshoes took a tumble. Dion Snowshoes is not only one of the major brands, but was also the title sponsor of the Championship. One great thing about his company is Bob’s (and wife Denise’s) participation in the sport. When something goes wrong or I have questions about products I use like New Balance shoes or my Ford car I have to go out of my way to get support. But I have seen Bob many times helping people with their snowshoes at races, answering questions, etc. At last year’s nationals I saw Bob giving advice mid-race to a runner who obviously did not strap his feet in tight enough.

Anyway, the course was two loops, a 6k outer loop and a 4k inner loop. The outer loop crossed under the road so this was the first snowshoe race I’ve ever done with a tunnel. I ran hard for a mile or two but settled in what in hindsight I think was too slow. I wasn’t sure which loop was first but I figured it out after 5-6k when we were nowhere near the start. I came through the start/finish at the 6k mark in about 36:27. From there I pushed again and caught a few people on the smaller loop. We were very strung out so there wasn’t much back and forth. I didn’t know anyone around me so I don’t have any idea how I was doing really. I finished strong in 58:03 feeling as I normally do, like I could have run farther but not faster.

After the race they had doughnut holes and bananas. I was disappointed to see the “real” food cost money. I didn’t buy any. Instead I decided to run the Citizens 5k. Actually I had a difficult time deciding on 5k or 10 but I figured I had already done the 10k course, although I considered the possibility the 5k might be part of that. I also thought I might have a better shot at placing well in the 5k. I thought about this as I waited for my friend Richard Busa, known as Mr. Snowshoe, to finish. Richard is a young 82 years old. Coming to watch him race is about half the reason anyone would need to come to the event. I just missed him finishing as it was getting so cold I needed to go back to my room for more clothes and in the 2 minutes I took to do that he came in. He graciously accepted a picture request (left), after all we’ve know each other for years, but you wouldn’t believe the number of people who come up asking for a hug and a photo op.







The women’s race happened as scheduled, they actually started before Richard came in. I took photos of the top 4 finishers but I didn’t know any of them. Eventually it became time for the Citizens race. I decided on the 5k because I’ve never run a snowshoe race under 4 miles. I wanted to go out very aggressively and see if I could hold it. The 5k turned out to be the 6k loop with a couple of the biggest hills removed, well we ran around them. I started in 1st but got caught less than half way in. He was pulling away and 3rd was gaining on me. 3rd turned out to be Peter Feeney from Bar Harbor (pronounced Bah Hahbah), Maine. Peter gained on me on the ups and I opened up on the downs. Near the end we came to one of the very steep hills and following race instructions I followed the flags around it. Some guys were on the course yelling “You can go up the hill if you want” so he did. I’m not sure if that was OK but he didn’t end up catching me. The guy in front of me, then me, then Peter all stopped at the 5k finish so I likely would have won the 10k if I had entered it (still waiting for my 1st snowshoe win, which will probably never happen).

There was an awards ceremony at 3:30PM. The awards were generally for the Championship race but I got an age group medal for the Citizens race without any fanfare after. I also won a raffle prize of a pair of hiking poles. Then at 6PM all athletes were welcome to dinner. At my table were Tim, Jim and Kevin, and they invited Peter over, and we also had Richard and a few older guys there I didn’t know. There were 3 choices of soups – I had cream of mushroom – and spaghetti with chicken and a brownie cake thing for dessert. I felt this made up for the charged food earlier. We ate there and went through another series of raffles. When the dinner was done the crowd dispersed, with half of our table going upstairs to the bar. There I learned that Jim Johnson knows more about music, specifically classic rock than anyone I know. I remember stuff really well but this guy is off the chart. Also, Richard told me he might have a spot on a relay team tomorrow if I wanted to run. So as I went back to my room I started planning my race and checkout schedule for Sunday.

Race 11-22 Montara Mountain Half Marathon

Sunday, March 6, 2011

Race 11-21 Norcal 10 miler

March 5th, 2011
10mi. - 1:02:50 - 54th/250
Garmin Tracking here.

Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Race 11-20 Desert Map Trek 4hr. - Red Rocks Canyon State Park

February 27th, 2011
4 Hour Rogaine - 3:58:06 (680/760 pts.) - 4th/10
Garmin Tracking here.

It’s tomorrow. After another drive in to Red Rocks from Bakersfield I was ready to go. I only had 20 minutes before the start this time, but was much more prepared when I got there having already registered (yesterday) and having my watch ready and sun block on. Rex had already begun to give instructions so I listed in as I planned out my route. There were 15 controls and the overall terrain was more mountainous – it didn’t look like there were open basins like in yesterday’s event. 4 of them were worth 80 points, the rest were worth 40, and there was a 25 point penalty (per minute, or fraction thereof) for taking over 4 hours.

Everyone started one time and people left in 2 groups. Some went straight north and I led a group going northeast between 2 small rock hills. There were 5 easy controls in the flat land not far from the start and I got 3 of them before heading up into the hilly terrain. I made it to the first 2 and maybe all 3 before anyone else, but there I took a slower route to the 4th and some people beat me to it. From there I got separated and didn’t see anyone as I got my fifth. I temporarily lost my bearings looking for #6 before eventually finding them and running into Bud (from yesterday) as we got what was for me #6. He told me he missed getting what I called #5 but proceeded to go to the same one as me for #7. After that we split up with him going to the northeastern most control that I decided to skip. I figured since I didn’t have time to get them all skipping the farthest one out, which was worth 40 points, would be worth it.

So I was on my own again and got a couple easy ones. One was a water stop on the side of a trail and one was on a fairly open hillside with a half dozen people crowded around. From there I went north to get a double point in a hard section. It was hard because the terrain was flatter so not an many landmarks. Also the contours on that part of the maps increased from 20 feet to 40 feet so the map was less descript, and the land all looked the same. A bunch of people looked lost in this area so I wasn’t the only one. I ended up going east to a part of trail I was on before getting those 2 easy ones. This still didn’t work so I tried again from the northwest near an obvious hilltop. Just as I was about to give up on it I saw it just ahead. This was big since it was worth double points and I didn’t’ want to waste so much time and not get anything.

The next one was fairly easy but then I came to one that people had a really difficult time finding. Bud was already there and he and some other people give only a little more effort before moving on. The control was supposed to be in gully (called a re-entrant) and there were like a dozen of them. I crossed a bunch of re-entrants perpendicularly between the top of them and the dried waterway at the bottom. I turned around and went up the dried waterway looking up the re-entrants and still could find it. Then I climbed most of the hill (a couple hundred feet) and crossed the re-entrants perpendicularly again at a higher level. I decided I’d look but I had to get going back so I was prepared not to get it. As I thought I was on the boundary of where it could possibly be I looked right and saw it in the shae directly under a plant that was handing out over sidewall of the re-entrant.

From there I didn’t follow the waterway which was a mistake. Instead I climbed over he shoulder of the hill and went down an almost dangerous side. It was very rocky and steep – like bouldering. Any more so and I wouldn’t have been able to do it. I tried to get the 2 controls in the flat area I didn’t get at the beginning but only managed to get one. There was one not far from the trial that led to the finish and I could see it from a was away. The other was in an inlet that I saw Bud coming out of. There were 2 I knew he didn’t get and there was this one and the one I purposely skipped that I didn’t get. I could have easily made it back first from there, but I wasn’t competing directly with him so I thought I’d be better off getting that last control. I looked as long as I felt I could (about 5 minutes) and rushed back. I made it back with only slightly more than a minute to spare.

Results…to come soon.

Today’s course had more trails and not so many volcanic rocks but I covered less ground, I think due to the difficulty of the climbing. I saw 3 wild hares on Saturday and none Sunday but I saw a bunch of interesting pink cacti Sunday (and none Saturday).

Race 11-19 Desert Map Trek 4hr. - Red Rocks Canyon State Park

February 26th, 2011
4 hr Rogaine - 3:55:13 (760/960 pts.) - 2nd/6
Garmin Tracking here.

I spend the past weekend in Southern California to run the Desert Map Trek Rogaines on Saturday and Sunday. I drove down Friday night and stayed in Bakersfield, which was 84 miles west of the race location, Red Rocks Canyon State Park in Cantil, CA. The Saturday event started at noon so there was plenty of time to get a full night’s sleep before driving to the park in the morning.

On Saturday I got to the park about 45 minutes before the race, which is quite early for me. I had time to fill out forms for both days’events but I only paid for Saturday not knowing if my left hamstring which had been sore the previous week would be good to run on the 2nd day. There was a 4 hour event and a 2 hour event. I opted for the 4. There were 19 controls on the curse and I only planned on getting half of them. The event organizer, Rex Winterbottom, said I should be able to get more if I do well. I was easily the fastest runner there although I’m significantly worse at the navigation aspect that many of the regular orienteering participants. It was bright and sunny but only in the mid 40’s so I forgot to put on sun block. I passed on wearing a hat so I wouldn’t get too hot and since it was cool I made a last minute decision not to carry a water bottle which worked out well for me.

Only 3 of us were at the start on time, but I couldn’t leave immediately due to my Garmin watch data being full. I left 2:16 late, after I had deleted sufficient old records to allow for a new event. Several of us converged near the first control and took a few minutes to find it, reminding me of the difficulty I sometimes have at these where I’m really close but can’t quite find it. Eventually we all found it and in hindsight didn’t seem to be too hidden. There were several other people around on my way to the 2nd and third controls as well, and that made it a little easier to find them. At that point I began to go south along a ridge while it seemed most people headed east into a basin below the ridge I ran along. In this whole area there were volcanic rocks scattered about the land.

I was all alone at the 4th control and continued below an East/West road that divided the course into a top and bottom half. The bottom half didn’t have all the volcanic rocks but it was more desert-like. I lost my bearings temporarily because the terrain really flattened out but eventually found my way by following dried waterways. It was at this point that I ran into Bud, who covered ground a lot slower than my but seemingly in a more direct way. He seemed to get right to the controls, or within a close range and I spent a lot of time looking around. He and I went back and forth for the rest of the time. We talked a little at a couple different controls as we both were looking in the same vicinity. In the rest of the time I saw only 2 other participants and they were teamed together. I briefly talked with them as they were looking for a control that Bud and I were also looking for.

I headed through a canyon of deep red rocks on the east side, near the highway on the way bad. Bud caught up to me in the canyon (again) as I was looking for a control in the canyon that I didn’t end up finding. Bud bailed on it earlier because he knew he’d have less time to get back by the cutoff, but my spending an additional 10 minutes didn’t help. I got one other control on the way back that was right on the natural route and ran the rest of the way back. I caught Bud and got to the end before him which worked out because it seems ties in points go to whoever finishes earlier.

More to come tomorrow…